The first major “here we go” out of Serie A this summer is a significant one. Manchester City are reportedly closing in on a £46.3 million move for AC Milan’s Tijjani Reijnders. The 26-year-old Dutch midfielder is poised to become Pep Guardiola’s latest tactical weapon as the club begins to reshape an ageing midfield unit following their underwhelming season.

In many ways, Reijnders looks like the ideal long-term successor to Ilkay Gündoğan: composed, progressive, intelligent, and with a growing knack for arriving in the box at just the right time. Reijnders enjoyed a breakout campaign with Milan in 2024/25, scoring 15 goals and providing 5 assists across all competitions—an exceptional return for a central midfielder and eerily reminiscent of Gündoğan’s best scoring campaign under Guardiola, when the German netted 17 in all competitions during the 2020/21 season.

More than just a finisher, Reijnders’ shot volume and quality have skyrocketed. He ranked in the 97th percentile for non-penalty goals and 96th percentile for non-penalty expected goals (npxG) among midfielders, showcasing elite-level off-ball movement and shooting instincts. His 98th percentile for shots per 90 (2.19) further confirms his consistent attacking threat.

Yet what truly makes Reijnders a Guardiola-type midfielder is his ball progression. He averaged 6.4 progressive passes per 90 (81st percentile) and 3.0 progressive carries per 90 (96th percentile)—elite metrics that reflect a player who can both break lines with passes and carry the ball through pressure. Add to that his 84th percentile in take-ons and 85th percentile in touches in the attacking penalty area, and the picture is clear: Reijnders is not just a goal threat, but a conduit for turning midfield possession into final-third pressure.

When comparing Reijnders to Ilkay Gündoğan (Manchester City, 2024/25) and Declan Rice (Arsenal, 2024/25) offers even deeper insight. While Rice dominates in defensive actions and Gündoğan edges forward passing percentage. Reijnders stands out in progressive carrying and key passes leading the trio this season in creative metrics. He attempts more forward passes than Rice and Gündoğan and maintains an elite 92.9% forward pass accuracy, just behind Gündoğan. His defensive contribution is lower (8.9 defensive actions per 90), but this is expected for a player with a more advanced role in Milan’s structure.

What this graph underlines is that Reijnders is closer in profile to Gündoğan than a deeper progressor like Rice. He excels at advancing play through carrying, while his defensive numbers, though not elite, are serviceable for a hybrid 8/10 role-especially in City’s possession-dominant setup where players like Lewis, Stones, Akanji invert alongside the 6, being Rodri or Nico Gonzalez. Gündoğan has never been famed for his defensive abilities.

At City, Reijnders could take up the left-sided interior midfield role Gündoğan previously made his own. His ability to arrive late into the box makes him ideal in games where City need to unlock deep blocks, and his progressive qualities mean he could also function as a transitional link in matches where Guardiola’s side are pinned back and need ball carriers to escape pressure.

Reijnders won’t be expected to replace Rodri or perform the deeper functions of a John Stones-type hybrid, but he could be key in rotating and reshaping a midfield currently reliant on ageing legs. Kevin De Bruyne looks set on Napoli and with Bernardo Silva’s future still uncertain, the Dutchman will be a long-term mainstay. His mix of goals, ball progression, and intelligent movement make him the type of multifunctional midfielder Guardiola covets.

Tijjani Reijnders might not carry the flashiest name, but the numbers, tape, and trajectory suggest Manchester City are making a calculated move for a player already performing at a Champions League level. If the reported £46.3 million fee is accurate, it’s a shrewd bit of business. Especially when the likes of Morgan Gibbs-White and Florian Wirtz look set to cost well over double this value.

He brings direct goal output, elite progression, and a tactical profile that fits neatly into Guardiola’s evolving system. The first major Serie A departure of the summer might just end up being one of the most impactful moves of the window.